I didn’t save the previous map, but it looks a little like the track has been shifted to the east a little. That’s not a good thing. Right now there’s a high pressure ridge that I hope steers the storm off to the west, but according to forecasters, there’s a low pressure ridge coming in from the northwest that might weaken the high, and allow the storm to steer closer to the west coast, and that means Tampa.
Here is a very cool link to a loop of the maps for Dennis. From the looks of that, maybe the track hasn’t shifted much lately.
The NWS 5am discussion says:
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS. THERE ARE PLENTY OF CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS.
DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THERAFTER…DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.Ã‚Â DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED UP TO 72 HOURS…INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THEREAFTER…MODELS DIVERGE AND ONE GROUP SHOWS A TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE OTHER AN EARLIER TURN TO THE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CONSENSUS.
Hopefully, the 3pm forecast will begin to tighten the cone, and we’ll have a better idea of where this thing is going.