When Facts Fail: Political Psychology Meets Trump’s Epstein Files Debacle
I recently listened to a Hidden Brain podcast about cognitive bias and how our minds work. The conclusion: people don’t change their minds solely based on evidence. Instead, they cling to beliefs that fit their emotional and social identities. As Heather Cox Richardson shows, Donald Trump is learning this the hard way—with his Epstein Files mess breaking through his favorite trick: moving the goalposts.
Studies in psychology, including work on motivated reasoning, reveal that when people encounter evidence that challenges their worldview, their emotions —such as anger, fear, and loyalty —often prevail over logic. Neuroscientist Drew Westen found that partisans “twirl the cognitive kaleidoscope until they get the conclusions they want“1 (Facebook). The evidence itself isn’t enough to sway minds.
Trump used that playbook during the Russia investigation. Despite Robert Mueller’s findings and the Senate intelligence report, he labeled it the “Russian hoax” and rebranded his base against both truth and institutions. By doing so, he created an emotional shield around himself and drove a political wedge that served his interests.
The Conspiracy That Stuck
Trump employed the same strategy in the Epstein case. After the DOJ said it found no evidence of a “client list” and closed the files, he labeled the outrage a “Jeffrey Epstein Hoax” and blamed “Radical Left Democrats” (YouTube, The Daily Beast). But unlike past scandals, this one didn’t fade.
A large share of his base believed Epstein held a damaging secret dossier, a temptation too powerful to ignore. Up to 70 percent of voters think information is being withheld. Unlike the Russia story, which fell to fatigue, the Epstein Files tapped into QAnon-style fears of a secret cabal, giving Trump less room to shrug it off (The Guardian).
Trump’s response is showing cracks. He attacked his own supporters as “stupid Republicans” who fell for the Epstein hoax (The Daily Beast). In response, fringe voices, such as Laura Loomer and Elon Musk, pushed back, demanding transparency and threatening to leave the movement (VG).
This blowback is rare in Trump-world. The Epstein issue hasn’t gone away. Its staying power stems from the base’s emotional investment. Studies suggest that once a conspiracy becomes part of someone’s identity, discrediting it is nearly impossible. In that way, Trump’s “hoax“ branding may be the exact wrong move.
Phil Fernbach and others discuss the illusion of knowledge: we often think we understand more than we actually do. That fuels overconfidence and polarization. With Epstein, the base wants to believe the documents will vindicate them. Trump’s silence breaks their mental pact: he promised answers, and now he won’t deliver.
When people overestimate their grasp of a controversy, losing faith in a handler (such as Trump) damages trust more than the issue itself. And that loss isn’t easily mended—people move on when their leaders prove reliable, not when they double down on denial.
Here’s where political psychology suggests a different approach: humility, transparency, admitting what’s unknown, and offering to look deeper. That approach often softens skepticism rather than inflaming it. But Trump reflexively walked away from that playbook, labeling critics as puppets of Democrats, thus missing an opportunity to reset the conversation.
In contrast, his handling has triggered the worst MAGA revolt yet. Prominent figures are calling him out. Pence and Johnson want full disclosure. Other MAGA-aligned voices are publicly distancing from Trump’s line (The Daily Beast).
This isn’t just about one scandal. It’s a textbook case of motivated reasoning in action, combined with overconfidence and conspiracy dynamics. Leaders who build movements on conspiracies live by them and can die by them.
Trump’s struggle reveals a confluence: the base’s emotional immersion, his inability to pivot his strategy, and psychological principles that illustrate how difficult it is to disentangle a belief once it has become emotionally tied to a leader. He may be learning the limits of narrative control.
Final Word
The Epstein Files matter because they intersect with Trump’s identity as a conspiratorial figure. His failure to address them clearly and transparently is not just a misstep, but a psychological rupture. And in a movement where belief is currency, losing trust might cost more than a scandal ever could.
Sources
- QAnon-style obsession over Epstein files (The Guardian)
- Rising voter dissatisfaction (Quinnipiac, 63%) (omni.se)
- Trump calls it a “hoax,“ attacks Republicans (ABC News)
- Prominent voices pushing back: Pence, Johnson, Loomer, Musk (VG)
- Motivated reasoning research, Drew Westen
Political party members’ brains get a rush.((https://kottke.org/06/01/political-party-members-brains-get-a-rush ↩
